Property value upturn remains elusive for now

At a national level, the numbers show a market that is steady but not surging. "Values remain 17.4% below the early 2022 peak and only 1.1% higher than June 2023’s trough," Kelvin observes.

While rising property values aren't inherently "good"—buyers, for instance, often prefer falling prices—the current stagnation is notable given the economic context. "Even though sentiment in the economy and property market seems to have turned up, why aren’t values responding more quickly to lower mortgage rates?" Kelvin asks.

The national flatness hides significant regional differences. Auckland continues to face headwinds, dropping by another -0.2% in November—its eighth consecutive monthly fall.

However, other parts of the country are seeing more positive movement. "Areas such as Hamilton, Tauranga, Christchurch, and Invercargill saw stronger increases last month," Kelvin notes.

Kelvin identifies two main restraints keeping a lid on widespread growth:

1. High Stock Levels: "The stock of listings on the market remains higher than the normal position for this time of year," says Kelvin. "That means pricing power largely remains in buyers’ hands."
2. The Labour Market: While unemployment may have peaked at 5.3%, it hasn't dropped significantly yet. "Until that happens, people’s feelings of job security may not improve much, and that caution still seems to be a cap on house prices."